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Djibouti’s Interference in Somaliland’s Internal Affairs: Violations of International and Regional Principles

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Djibouti’s President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh

Djibouti’s Interference in Somaliland’s Internal Affairs: Violations of International and Regional Principles

 

1.       Background information:

 

The deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia, signed in January 2024, has significantly shaken up the geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa region. According to reports, the agreement grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports, including the strategic port of Berbera, in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood.  This is a major development, as it reduces Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti’s ports, which have handled around 95% of Ethiopia’s trade.

 

The implications of this deal are far-reaching. Djibouti, which has long benefited economically from its position as Ethiopia’s main trade gateway, is now facing the prospect of losing a significant portion of that lucrative business.  In response, reports indicate that Djibouti has been quietly training new recruits for its Republican Guard, allegedly with the intent of destabilizing Somaliland.  Djibouti has denied any malicious intent towards its neighbor, but it is clear that the country is struggling to accept the new geopolitical realities brought about by the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement.

 

The deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia has the potential to further polarize the already volatile Horn of Africa region. Somalia, which considers Somaliland to be part of its territory, has strongly condemned the agreement and declared it “null and void” The dispute could potentially play into the hands of the Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab, which operates in Somalia, and further exacerbate regional tensions.

 

Overall, the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal has sent shockwaves through the Horn of Africa, reminiscent of the tensions sparked by Ethiopia’s unilateral decision to build a massive hydropower dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. [3] The region is now bracing for the potential fallout as the various powers jockey for influence and try to protect their interests in this strategically important part of the world.

 

2.       Djibouti is working to undermine the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement between Somalia and Somaliland.

 

Djibouti has taken a stance against Somaliland’s quest for independence and has aligned itself with Somalia in an effort to block the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal and undermine Somaliland’s control over the Awdal region.  Djibouti has hosted meetings between the leader of the SSC-Khatumo group, which is pushing for independence from Somaliland, and the Somali President.  This signals a coordinated effort by Djibouti and Somalia to destabilize Somaliland.

 

Furthermore, the document indicates that Djibouti has hosted meetings between the leader of the SSC-Khatumo group, which is pushing for independence from Somaliland, and the Somali President. This signals a coordinated effort by Djibouti and Somalia to destabilize Somaliland.

 

By aligning with Somalia and supporting groups opposed to Somaliland’s independence, Djibouti appears to be interfering in the internal affairs of Somaliland and challenging its territorial integrity and sovereignty. This goes against the principles of non-interference and respect for the sovereignty of states that are enshrined in international law and the African Union Charter.

 

 

3. Djibouti is working to support some rebel groups by recruiting and training armed militias, in order to cause damage to Somaliland.

 

Djibouti has been accused of training Issa and Gadabursi clan rebels at a military base in Guestir, located about 50 km south of Ali-Sabieh.  These rebel groups are reportedly being supported by Djibouti in order to create chaos and undermine Somaliland’s control over the Awdal region. Somaliland has condemned Djibouti’s actions as provocative and destabilizing.

 

The tensions between Djibouti and Somaliland stem from Somaliland’s recent deal with Ethiopia, which grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s ports, including Berbera.  This deal has significant geopolitical implications and security considerations for the Horn of Africa region, as it eases Ethiopia’s landlocked trade and security constraints and secures maritime access. Djibouti, which has long been a key port for Ethiopia, appears to be envious of this deal and is trying to undermine it by supporting rebel groups and aligning with Somalia.

 

Djibouti’s actions are seen as a replay of Mogadishu’s genocide drive against Somaliland in the late 1980s, which failed.  Somalilanders are not impressed by Djibouti’s so-called neutral stance, as they had played a significant role in supporting Djibouti’s struggle for independence from French colonial rule.

 

3.       The key factors driving the ongoing tensions between Djibouti and Somaliland include:

 

Competition for Regional Influence:

Djibouti and Somaliland are both vying for greater influence and control in the Horn of Africa region.

Djibouti’s close ties with Somalia, Somaliland’s neighbor, are seen by Somaliland as a threat to its autonomy and aspirations for international recognition.

Both sides are competing for access to strategic resources and infrastructure, such as the Port of Berbera in Somaliland.

International Recognition:

Somaliland’s lack of international recognition as an independent state is a major point of contention with Djibouti, which recognizes Somalia’s federal government.

Djibouti’s support for Somalia’s claims over Somaliland is seen by the latter as undermining its aspirations for statehood and autonomy.

Economic Interests:

The control and development of key economic assets, such as the Port of Berbera, are a source of competition and tension between the two sides.

Djibouti views the Port of Berbera as a potential rival to its own strategic port infrastructure, which is a critical component of its economy.

Geopolitical Dynamics:

The broader geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, involving powers like Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, also contribute to the tensions between Djibouti and Somaliland.

These external actors have varying interests and alliances in the region, which can exacerbate the existing tensions between Djibouti and Somaliland.

The complexity of these factors, coupled with the historical grievances and competing national aspirations, have made it challenging to find a lasting resolution to the tensions between Djibouti and Somaliland.

4.       Deteriorating Ethiopia-Djibouti Relations: Implications and Diplomatic Considerations

The relationship between Ethiopia and Djibouti has deteriorated following the agreement signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Somaliland and Ethiopia signed an agreement where Ethiopia would gain access to the Red Sea through Somaliland, and Somaliland would receive economic and diplomatic benefits. Djibouti, in collaboration with the Federal Government of Somalia, opposed this agreement. Djibouti’s rejection has put pressure and tension on Ethiopia, as 95% of Ethiopia’s imports and exports pass through the port of Djibouti. This situation could pose a challenge to the lucrative trade agreement between the two countries, Ethiopia and Djibouti.

Potential economic and diplomatic implications if the tensions continue to escalate:

Economic Implications:

Disruption to the lucrative trade relationship between Ethiopia and Djibouti, which relies heavily on Djibouti’s port infrastructure. This could significantly impact Ethiopia’s economy, as 95% of its imports and exports flow through Djibouti.

Increased costs and delays for Ethiopian goods moving through the port of Djibouti, reducing the competitiveness of Ethiopian exports.

Potential loss of Djibouti’s role as a key logistics and transportation hub for the Horn of Africa region, as Ethiopia may seek alternative port options.

Reduced foreign investment and economic cooperation between the two countries as the political tensions escalate.

Diplomatic Implications:

Deterioration of the historically strong diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Djibouti, which have been important regional allies.

Increased geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa, as Djibouti’s alignment with Somalia’s federal government could draw in other regional powers.

Djibouti may seek to strengthen ties with other countries, such as China, to balance against its dependence on Ethiopia.

Potential for the dispute to spill over into other areas of regional cooperation, such as security and counterterrorism efforts.

Damage to Djibouti’s reputation as a stable and reliable partner for international organizations and foreign investors.

Djibouti needs to be cautious and careful in its approach towards the powerful state of Ethiopia, with which it has a very strong relationship. Djibouti should re-evaluate its policy towards Ethiopia and avoid hardline stances and anger, which it has shown towards the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Djibouti, without displaying any hostility towards the Ethiopian government, should try to demonstrate a diplomatic approach that includes mutual interests between the two countries, Ethiopia and Djibouti. It is known that within the next 10 years and in the future, Ethiopia will be in need of the use of the crucial port of Djibouti.

Djibouti’s Interference in Somaliland’s Internal Affairs: Violations of International and Regional Principles

Based on the perspective of this document, the main ways in which Djibouti has interfered in the internal affairs of Somaliland and violated international and African principles are:

Support for rebel groups and militias in the Awdal region of Somaliland: According to the document, Djibouti has been accused of training Issa and Gadabursi rebels at a military base in Guestir, with the aim of creating chaos and undermining Somaliland’s control over the Awdal region. This is considered a direct interference in the internal affairs of Somaliland.

Alignment with Somalia to block the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia: The document indicates that Djibouti has hosted meetings between the leader of the SSC-Khatumo group, which is pushing for independence from Somaliland, and the Somali President. This signals a coordinated effort by Djibouti and Somalia to destabilize Somaliland.

Violation of the principle of non-interference: By supporting rebel groups and aligning with Somalia to block a sovereign agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia, Djibouti would be violating the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, which is a fundamental principle of international law and the Charter of the African Union.

Challenge to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Somaliland: By backing Somalia’s claims over Somaliland, Djibouti would be challenging Somaliland’s aspiration for independence and its control over its territory.

In summary, according to the document, Djibouti’s actions represent inappropriate interference in the internal affairs of Somaliland, which violates key principles of international law and the African Union Charter, such as non-interference and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.

the main violations of international and regional law by Djibouti according to this document are the following:

i.                     Violation of the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other States:

Article 2(7) of the United Nations Charter establishes the principle of non-intervention in the internal affairs of States.

1.       The African Union Charter also enshrines the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Member States (Article 4(g)).

2.       By supporting rebel groups and opposing the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia, Djibouti would be violating this fundamental principle.

ii.                   Violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somaliland:

1.       Respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of States is a basic principle of international law (UN Charter, Article 2(4)).

By backing Somalia’s claims over Somaliland, Djibouti would be challenging Somaliland’s aspiration for independence and its control over its territory.

iii.                 Failure to uphold the principle of self-determination of peoples:

1.       The right to self-determination of peoples is enshrined in the UN Charter (Article 1(2)) and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (Article 20).

By opposing the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia and supporting groups that oppose Somaliland’s independence, Djibouti would be violating this right.

In summary, the actions of Djibouti described in the document appear to violate key principles of international and regional law, such as non-interference in internal affairs, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right to self-determination of peoples.

 

Thanks for your consideration.

 

Dr. Abdi Abdillahi Hassan

 

 

The Warsangali Community pledge to vote for “Waddani”the leading opposition party.

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By Jama Feyte

The Somaliland National Party “WADDAN” continues to attract more supporters across the country as the upcoming presidential elections with the Warsangali community pledging to vote for the leading opposition party.

The chairman of the WADDANI party, Mr. Hirsi Ali X Hassan, and the party Presidential Hopeful Mr. Abdurrahman Abdullahi Mohamed “Cirro” and other officials of the WADDANI party held a large meeting with, elders, young scholars, and women from the Sanaag regions namely the Warsangali community.

Mr. Hirsi Ali X Hassan addressing the meeting said, “The unity and solidarity of Somaliland have long been foundational to its stability and progress. However, the current administration under President Muse Bihi has fostered division and unrest, leading to civil strife and fragmentation.

“The primary priority for Somaliland National Party “Waddani” is restoring unity and solidarity among its people. Under the leadership of President Bihi, the Kulmiye government initially presented itself as an inclusive administration. However, its tenure has been marked by significant challenges, including territorial losses, military setbacks, economic mismanagement, and a decline in public services,” said Mr. Hirsi Ali X Hassan.

Mr. Abdurrahman Abdullahi Mohamed “Cirro” speaking during the occasion said, “They don’t need Warsangali they said Muse Bihi & his party but today Warsangali people have spoken and have handed WADDANI the keys of victory.

The Presidential Hopeful welcomed  leading members of the  community, among them former MPs Baar Saeed and Jamal J Hamud, and other prominent members who joined the party

The WADDANI presidential candidate further said, “The intellectuals of the Warsengli community have indicated that they are playing a major role in the change efforts of the WADDANI party, and their voices and their strength are aligned with the leadership of the party so that there will be a change in leadership in the country and the party will win the upcoming elections.

The leaders of the WADDANI party welcomed the leaders and members of the community and thanked them for their support. He pledged that they would take a big responsibility in dealing with the community’s grievances and support development in their areas.

https://fb.watch/tyA8eMXGpX/

 

The Republic of Somaliland warns the “failed regime” in Somalia to prioritize stabilizing its own affairs rather than persistently attempting to destabilize Somaliland

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Additionally, in the press release by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Somaliland reaffirmed its commitment to “fostering strong bilateral relations with its neighbors including the strategic ally of Ethiopia based on mutual respect and cooperation”.

IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 23, 2024

The Government of the Republic of Somaliland reaffirms the significance of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia, emphasizing its focus on mutual benefits and cooperative efforts between the two sisterly
neighboring nations.

Since restoring its independence and separation from the tumultuous Somali Republic in 1991, Somaliland has charted its own course towards stability. democracy, and self-rule. As a sovereign and independent state, Somaliland remains committed to fostering strong bilateral relations with its neighbors including the strategic ally of Ethiopia based on mutual respect and cooperation.

It is s regrettable that the Moga dishu Administration, under the leadership of Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, which is not in full control of its own capital, persists in attempts to destabilize Somaliland through support for local militia groups. Meawhile, reports indicate their weaponry and ams are falling into the hands of Alshabaab and clan militias, exacerbating regional instability.

In stark contrast, H.E. President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Republic Somaliland was elected by his people through free and fair elections, a testament to Somaliland’s commitment to democraue Cprinciples. The so-called government in Mogadishu, by contrast, was nominated by a selection of a few under a tent, a process that falls far short of democratic standards.

Somaliland asserts its sovereign right to engage in relations and agreements with other nations. Situated at a strategic location, Somaliland is a key stakeholder in the geopolitics of the Red Sea region and beyond. The Mogadishu failed regime, lacking control and credibility, is not and will never be part of this strategic equation. It is incumbent upon them to stabilize their own affairs before interfering in Somaliland’s internal matters

INFORMATION MINISTER HINTS AT ANTICIPATORY GOOD NEWS

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Given the inkling of information provided, it seems that the Minister of Information, Culture, and National Guidance of Somaliland, Hon. Ali Hassan Mohamed, has hinted at significant news that will bring happiness to the citizens of Somaliland in the coming weeks.

The minister mentioned this during a dinner with Somaliland’s diaspora in Hargeisa without further elaborative details.

The anticipated news includes the possibility of Somaliland and Ethiopia signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a military navy base, which would likely be a most significant development.

This entails, in its essence, Ethiopia potentially recognizing Somaliland, which would mark a diplomatic milestone for the region.

However, it’s important to note that such announcements and agreements are subject to concrete confirmation and formalization through official channels.

However, it’s important to note that such announcements and agreements are subject to concrete confirmation and formalization through official channels.

Somaliland National Party “WADDANI” appoints Mr. Jama Ayaanle Feyte as the New Shadow Deputy Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International cooperation

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By Goth Mohamed Goth

Mr. Jama Ayaanle Feyte, Somaliland-born politician, Journalist, and Horn of Africa political analyst has been appointed as the New Shadow Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in a press statement released today by the leading opposition political party “WADDANI” Somaliland National Party.

He plays a leading role in coordinating patriotic efforts of the dedicated diaspora space lobbyists of Somaliland in North America, Europe, and all over the World, He is also constantly engaged in their consequential activism to advance Somaliland’s cause.

Mr. Jama plays a considerable role in the Diaspora community, especially in the national development agenda, and supports local NGOs and youth groups by helping them to build resilience in times of crisis, invest in businesses, assist community development initiatives, and generally in the achievement of national development goal in Sanaag and other regions of Somaliland.

Mr. Jama Ayaanle Feyte, is actively engaged in the imperative initiative of the die-hard diaspora activists towards protecting and preserving national history and at the same time educating young generations in the Diaspora of Somaliland of origin about the true history of the Republic of Somaliland.

Read the press release below

 

 

The director of the HCC reiterated the importance of togetherness at the 17th opening session of the HIBF

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The director of the Hargeysa Cultural Center Dr. Jama M. Jama reiterated the importance of togetherness at the 17th opening session of the HIBF. Read below full excerpts of the speech;

His excellency the vice president of the Republic of Somaliland, the mayor of our capital, other members of the executive, leaders of our political parties, members from the parliament, commanders of our forces, council of Somaliland artists, youth from different regions, ladies and gentlemen.

Dear friends,

Good morning.

It is blessing day. 17th years of the Hargeysa International Book Fair opens its doors today. And we are together one more time.

It is a major target of this movement for the commitment to promote the reading and writing culture among our society, especially among the youth. The consistent yearly event goes beyond the book, and as you know, and as you will witness, it is celebration of art and creativity in its all forms and shapes of art. You witnessed the starting with traditional dancers.

We will have 123 speakers who come to this stage, among them 25 foreign scholars, writers and artists coming from 14 different countries; we have 35 panels (26 Hargeysa and 6 Gailey and 3 children sessions Hargeysa, Gabiley and Arabisiyo); over 30 new Books (mostly Somali new books); 50 performance artists; 16 painters artists; presence of10 diplomatic missions, a circus for children and STEM entertainments, Chess and Shax competition…

We have Tunisia as the Guest country of the HIBF. We welcome our friends to our home, to Somaliland. It is a blessing to have you here with us. You arrived this morning and I know you are tired, but we equally see you the energy in your faces. Welcome.

We welcome other guests, some of them are coming next few days.

We are together for six days, but as a nation, as global citizens, and as humanity, we need to be together and united against the challenges of the nature, man made and nature challenges.

That is why we chose togetherness as the team of the year. When we chose the Somali term “ISahaansho” as the theme of the year, we could have select coexistence, unity, solidarity, as we actually did in the past. But togetherness is stronger. We are together, and we want to be together for celebrations and for existence. It is a feeling.

Togetherness is the pleasant feeling of being united with other people in friendship and understanding. Giving your community a greater sense of togetherness, is to provide an open door with others who want to join. We want to be together for critical dynamics, encompassing climate change, economic challenges, and other pressing issues.

For Somalilanders, it is a year of elections. Elections divide. We want to be together and recall this togetherness for the whole year.

This year, we have deliberately selected Togetherness as our theme to underscore the resilience demonstrated by Somaliland and the global community in the face of these formidable challenges.  Democracy is hard to sustain. Freedom of speech is hard to sustain, so as to the climate change and other major world-wide complications.

Somaliland and its resilience could be an example for all. Once again, we are determined to embrace this spirit of resilience and leverage the power of togetherness to address these local and global challenges collectively.

I wish you a pleasant stay in Somaliland. For the first time comers, please visit different places of Somaliland, connect to your peers, enjoy the hospitality this nation proofed to the world.

Welcome to Somaliland, Welcome to the Hargeysa International Book Fair

HCC facilitates educational opportunities for the public every year leading up to HIBF 2024

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The Hargeisa Cultural Center has allowed different citizens to benefit from different education offered.

The education provided by HCC before HIBF includes a Somali creative writing course, Professional library and Archive Training, and a GIS course.

A message posted by HCC on their Twitter account reads;

“Thank you to all the talented participants who participated in our pre-HIBF2024 Somali Creative Writing Course! Your dedication and passion for storytelling were truly incredible. We can’t wait to see where your creative journey takes you next

Every year, young teenagers benefit from the knowledge that HCC facilitates for the community in the days before the start of the international book fair.

 

 

Maintain unity to safeguard togetherness, the VP tells the nation as he opens Hargeisa International Book Fair 2024

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“If we don’t unite, the biggest thing will be the collapse of our security, we are proud of being a democratic nation, let’s…” VP Sayli’

 

By M.A. Egge

 

The Vice President H.E. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Sayli’ has underscored the importance of having a united people in a nation, where the setting is of harmonious setting.

 

The VP underpinned the fact when he opened the 17th Hargeisa International Book Fair on Saturday at the Hargeisa Cultural Centre.

 

In his speech he emphasized the need for solidarity hence reminded the audience that Somaliland was a nation that boasted democratic processes and tradition which is only realised through unity and togetherness.

 

He cautioned that when such togetherness is ruffled, much is stood to be lost.

 

He however noted that there was much goodness realized in uniting a people.

 

He said that vast achievements and benefits reaped through togetherness than when a people are divided.

 

The VP pointed out that it was a year of elections, despite having been post-ponded, hence there is even more need in maintaining and safeguarding the prevalent solidarity.

 

He said that it was an honour for the country to host the exhibition and hailed the efforts of the head of the centre Mr. Jama Musa Jama for his constant efforts and in putting the country in a global map.

 

The fair which has this year’s theme is “Togetherness”, and Tunisia is a guest nation had its opening graced by the attendance of international participants, eminent personalities from the various councils of the government, diplomats that include those of resident embassies, a horde of artistes and numerous notable personalities.

 

It is worth noting that each year the fair has a partner country as it hosts the expo, with this time round being Tunisia.

 

The event is expected to be held for five days and would have in its itinerary 123 speakers, 35 panels and 3 children’s sessions, 24 new Books (Somali), 22 performance artistes, 16 paint artists, 10 diplomats, 1 circus and 1 Chess and a tradition African “Shax” competition.

 

In a speech delivered by the Vice President, he said that it is aa great honour for Somaliland to host the International Book Fair successfully perennially for almost the past two decades.

 

“We thank the cultural centre and its chairman, Jama, and the workers for the hard work they have been doing for 17 years, and they started from scratch, they are very grateful”

 

“It is a great honour for us that every year different countries come to this forum to exchange knowledge and learn a lot from us, and we learn from them”, he said.

 

He continued, “This year’s theme is togetherness, its value has been widely explained, and today there is a great need for the country and people to be together”, and added, “Togetherness is doing a lot in our country and the world where there are many challenges, and togetherness can overcome challenges be they, climate change, drought, education, health, access to clean water or associated issues”.

 

He advised the populaces to shun tribalism and to think of themselves as constituents.

 

“If we don’t unite, the biggest thing will be the collapse of our security, we are proud of being a democratic nation, let’s not undermine it”, he concluded.

 

 

Central Bank leads operation ridding frontier town of illegal money changers in bid to maintain rates stability

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Staff
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Illegal money changers have been rounded up in Tog-wajaale town in a clean-up operation campaign led by the Central Bank at the end of the week in efforts to cushion exchange rates stability.

In a bid to rogue out illegal money changers at the vibrant frontier town, the exercises le by none other than the Director of the Central Bank himself Mr. Mohamed Qasim Hussein Dalmar, around seventy unlicensed money changers were rounded up an had their operations curtailed and their tools of the trade and working facilities confiscated.

The administration of Tog-Wajale district and all the area security agencies participated in the operation meant to curb disruptions of the main exchange rates hence curtail scamming which spikes them.

The DG reminded the people that the Central Bank’s rules guiding the regulations of exchange rates ought to be adhered hence the stakeholders in the business have to be registered and licensed.

He gave a stern warning to operators who flout the law that action would be taken against them swiftly.

He reveled that those they rounded up hence found to have flouted the regulations number 70.

Given that Wajaale is a border town and the main gateway to Ethiopia cherishing vibrancy in the commercial sector, it was precarious and a soft spot to disrupt the exchange rates since there was a myriad of money changers.

Commentary: Current Ethiopia, Somalia face-off: Somaliland, Al-Shabab, and Türkiye

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Addis Abeba – Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have gone through at least two major episodic moments since the coming into 2018. The first is related to the tripartite agreement between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, and its short-lived euphoria. As the Horn of Africa has historically accumulated unresolved grievances and contestations, the agreement was largely expected to herald a new chapter in the modern political history of the region. It was thought to usher healthy Ethio-Eritrean interstate relations, given almost three-decades-old mutual suspicions triggered by the 1998 border war that led to unresolved disputes, proxy wars, and diplomatic hostilities. Eritrea-Somalia relations have not been peaceful either. The Eritrean government has been accused of directly sponsoring the al-Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen militants in Somalia and has unresolved border issues with Djibouti.

The advent of the Abiy flabbergasted many observers and seemed to raise the bar of hope for the region. The tripartite coalition, largely perceived as spearheaded by Abiy, was then expected to chart a new path in the Horn. A joint declaration on comprehensive cooperation between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea was signed in Asmara, on September 5, 2018. In January 2020, leaders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia vowed to further deepen ties under what they called “Joint Plan of Action for 2020”. The joint action plan was aimed at focusing on two main and intertwined objectives of consolidating peace, stability and security as well as promoting economic and social development.

Unfortunately, what followed next in four years has resurrected and reified the decades-old mutual suspicions and political standoffs in the region. The two-year devastating war in the Tigray region and Ethiopia’s recent MOU with Somaliland constitute major events that have redefined the Horn of Africa in general and peace and security in the region in particular. Since the signing of the Pretoria agreement, Ethio-Eritrea relations have been, measured by all possible indicators of interstate relations, going south. Eritrea’s absence and/or denial of participation in the agreement, some allegedly “offensive” comments made by Ethiopian officials about accessing the Red Sea via Eritrea, claims that Isaias-led PDFJ is sponsoring proxy war in Ethiopia’s ongoing war, and others appear to reinstall the pre-Nobel deadlock.

Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland and the MOU signed on 1 January 2024 is the other major episodic moment with significant consequences. The MOU has the potential to weaken Ethio-Somalia relations in many ways. It certainly emboldened al-Shebab’s presence and influence in the Horn. Neighboring and non-African actors are redefining their moves and perhaps instrumentalizing this growing fiasco. Among others, Eritrea, Egypt, Türkiye, Europe, and the US are making tactical as well as strategic moves to secure their own needs in the region.

Nevertheless, the MOU appears to fulfill the mutual needs of Ethiopia and Somaliland. For Ethiopia, the deal would bring about two major benefits, and for another reason, it is unlikely to easily let it go. For one thing, the deal would secure Ethiopia’s commercial access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia has been a landlocked country since Eritrea’s independence. Under the deal, Somaliland would, for fifty years, lease 20 km of its coastline to Ethiopia. Second, Somaliland’s coastline would also make Ethiopia a naval power in the Red Sea area as Ethiopia plans to build a military base there. Third, although Ethiopia, Dubai’s DP World, and Somaliland signed a deal to develop and manage the port of Berbera in 2017, Ethiopia has reportedly lost its 19 percent share due to perhaps failing to fulfill the conditions required to complete the ownership deal. Consequently, having already lost the opportunity to access the Red Sea via peaceful means with Eritrea and the tripartite Berbera deal, Ethiopia is likely to be highly protective of any remaining opportunities that might provide access to the Red Sea or improve its maritime trade capabilities, as these are crucial for its economic and strategic interests.

In addition, although different in some ways, Ethiopia’s unflinching determination to pursue the construction of the GERD – a project contested for its political and developmental aspirations – might signal the possible course the MOU with Somaliland would likely take. If the MOU is successfully implemented, it is likely to bring about substantial economic and political benefits, as well as enhance Ethiopia’s relative standing in Africa in general and East Africa in particular. For Somaliland, Ethiopia would only need to officially recognize Somaliland, a process that has been frustrated by the international community for three decades.

However, Somalia rejected the deal and vehemently resisted any further progress. The immediate reaction to the deal came from the Somali government which viewed it as “an act of aggression against Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Many countries of the world, including Egypt, the USA, and Turkey, came out and voiced their concern and expressed support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is, however, unclear whether these reactions constitute something consequential or diplomatic lip service.

In addition to diplomatic appeals to the international community, Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud took a series of measures. Accusing Ethiopia of “bluntly interfering” in its internal affairs, it ordered the expulsion of Ethiopia’s ambassador and the closure of two consulates in Somalia. Hassan’s government also demanded all Ethiopian troops, both those who came under bilateral arrangements and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), to leave Somalia by the end of 2024. According to Somalia’s National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali, this was a move aimed at showing Somalia’s rejection of Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland.

Yet, the Somali Federal Government’s (SFG) approach to dealing with this dispute might not necessarily yield positive outcomes. Evidence snowballing in the days after the deal shows something to the contrary. If anything, the SFG’s (re)actions have been and will likely undermine SFG’s and partners’ efforts against al-Shabaab in the Horn. Following the signing of the MOU, it was not only the SFG that outrightly condemned the deal but also al-Shabaab. In its press release rejecting the MOU, al-Shabaab has drawn a close parallel between Ethiopia’s part in the MOU and the historical crusaders. Al-Shabaab’s press release reads:

Harakat Al-Shabab Al Mujahideen (HSM) unequivocally rejects the proposal, entertainment, and submission of one inch of Somalia territory or coastline to the Ethiopian Christian crusaders. The Jihad waged by our forefathers, the likes of Ahmed Gurey, Hasan Barsane, and Syid Muhammad Abdullah Hasan, have previously prevented Ethiopia from actualizing its goals in the Horn of Africa, and by the grace of Allah, HSM will continue their legacy of fighting the Ethiopian crusaders and defending their religion, land, dignity, and resources (Al-Shabaab, press release, 18 October 2023).

Instrumentalizing this, Al-Shabaab is now undertaking a massive propaganda campaign against Ethiopia and recruiting individuals, Ethiopians included, for a new round of terrorist acts in the region. It’s not only the forceful emergence of al-Shabaab but also the already weak SFG that can further complicate security and political challenges in the Horn. It was noted elsewhere that Somalia’s national army suffers from “poor military strategy, inexperienced field commanders and corruption among leadership, including theft of food rations, military equipment, weapons and ammunition to sell on the black market”. Given, therefore, the already weak and incoherent military capability of the SFG and the ongoing propaganda campaign, al-Shabaab is poised to gather more strength, further weaken the SFG and continue attacking neighboring countries, and consequently, turn the region into a convenient site of fragile and failed states.

In any case, unlike SFG’s demand, it’s unclear if and when or even necessary that Ethiopia’s forces leave Somalia. Given security and political interests -including individuals, political groups, or otherwise, Ethiopian forces may not consider leaving Somalia. Measured by the analysis of possible outcomes, Ethiopia’s presence might rather be functional for both countries. The potential withdrawal of Ethiopian forces would create a conducive environment for al-Shabaab to expand operations beyond central and southern Somalia. In both case scenarios, Somalia needs another mechanism of pressuring Ethiopia and/or Somaliland to abandon their planned joint ventures.

Turkey seems to be actively working to bring about a peaceful – or at least non-confrontational – way out of this deadlock. Turkey’s involvement can be justified because it aims to protect its existing political and economic interests or expand on its “strategic depth” (popularized by Türkiye’s former Prime Minister-turned opposition leader Ahmet Davutoğlu) and presence, or both in the Horn of Africa. If successful, Turkey’s actual involvement can result in two possible logical outcomes. One is the de-escalation of diplomatic tension between the two countries. Turkey can facilitate direct talks and mutual understanding. This can reduce and prevent potential escalation of unilateral actions by the contending actors.

The first round of talks held in Türkiye’s capital, Ankara, signaled hopes in this direction. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs apprised the meeting as “friendly and transparent”. However, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said, “There are no indications so far that they [Ethiopia] are turning back from that path”. Nevertheless, another round of discussion is scheduled to take place on the upcoming September 2024 in Ankara. Still, if Addis Abeba and Hargeisa insist on implementing the MOU, Türkiye’s leverage can only be on mitigating conditions and factors, helping contending actors accept the inevitable with minor frictions.

It’s, however, unclear if Somalia would take such an outcome easily, and if it does not, in what ways. Another challenge is the fact that Somaliland does not seem to be actively participating in this Türkiye-led discussion. Understandably, this could have agitated Somalia, as it would mean the de facto recognition of the country and, consequently, its deal with Ethiopia. Yet, as an indispensable piece of the puzzle, Türkiye will have to find some innovative ways to involve Somaliland. Finally, any missteps, miscalculations, or mishandling can have immense ramifications for all the parties involved.

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