By Ibrahim Mohamed
For over three decades, Somaliland has pursued a policy of goodwill and fraternity toward Djibouti, treating it as a trusted neighbor and regional partner. Yet, behind the smiles and ceremonial handshakes, Djibouti has consistently worked against Somaliland’s most fundamental national interest: international recognition. While Somaliland celebrates “brotherhood,” Djibouti practices realpolitik, using strategic deception and diplomatic hedging to safeguard its own economic and geopolitical dominance in the Horn of Africa.
This duplicity is neither new nor accidental. It is a calculated policy designed to delay Somaliland’s recognition, preserve Djibouti’s monopoly as the region’s diplomatic hub, and prevent Berbera from emerging as a rival to Djibouti’s ports. The irony? Somaliland has remained friendly and accommodating, failing to recognize that in the ruthless world of international politics, interests not sentiments determine alliances.
A Pattern of Hostility Disguised as Friendship
Since Somaliland declared the restoration of its sovereignty in 1991, Djibouti has never hidden its opposition to Somaliland’s independence. In fact, history records a telling moment during Somaliland’s early struggle for stability:
In 1991, as the Berbera Conference was underway to form a government in Somaliland, a coalition of militias including remnants of Siad Barre’s forces and Ciise clan fighters captured parts of western Awdal, including the port city of Zeila. In response, SNM Chairman Abdirahman Tuur led a delegation to Djibouti to discuss the matter with President Hassan Gouled Aptidon. The response from Djibouti’s leadership was astonishing. Aptidon, alongside his intelligence chief Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (now Djibouti’s president), told the SNM leadership:
“The group controlling Zeila is called the United Somali Front (USF), and SNM must recognize its authority over Zeila and Loyada.”
Tuur refused and ordered SNM forces to clear the militias successfully routing the USF. The Ciise fighters fled to Djibouti, while Siad Barre’s remnants regrouped in Puntland under SSDF.
This incident foreshadowed Djibouti’s long-term posture, create pressure points on Somaliland while publicly pretending neutrality.
Why Djibouti Opposes Somaliland’s Recognition
Djibouti’s opposition to Somaliland’s recognition is rooted in self-preservation:
- Economic Rivalry
Djibouti’s economy depends heavily on port services, particularly for landlocked Ethiopia. Berbera’s rise as a competitive port, backed by DP World and Ethiopia, poses a direct threat to Djibouti’s near-monopoly.
• A leaked U.S. cable published by Wikileaks revealed President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh’s deep concern over Berbera becoming an Ethiopian trade route alternative.
- Regional Dominance and Geopolitical Leverage
Djibouti positions itself as the gateway to the Horn of Africa hosting foreign military bases and acting as a mediator in African conflicts. If Somaliland gains recognition, Djibouti loses its unique leverage as the “regional peace broker.”
- Alignment with AU Norms
Djibouti adheres to the African Union’s rigid stance on colonial borders. Supporting Somaliland’s recognition could embolden other secessionist movements, which Djibouti and other AU members fear.
- Maintaining Somalia Fragmentation
Djibouti benefits from Somalia’s weakness as well. A fragmented Somalia keeps Djibouti relevant as a diplomatic hub and gives it leverage in international forums. A strong, recognized Somaliland disrupts this equation.
The Hypocrisy of Symbolic Engagement
While Djibouti works against Somaliland at the African Union, IGAD, and even the United Nations, it simultaneously plays the role of a “friendly neighbor.”
• Djibouti sends ceremonial delegations to Hargeisa, such as the Mayor of Djibouti City, to maintain a façade of goodwill.
• Meanwhile, Djibouti signs security and cooperation agreements with Mogadishu, as seen in the recent Memorandum of Understanding that explicitly addressed “regional security and international matters of common concern” a diplomatic euphemism for stopping Somaliland’s recognition.
This is a textbook case of “Two-faced diplomacy” or strategic hedging, engage Somaliland enough to keep it calm while actively undermining its sovereignty.
Somaliland’s Naïveté: The Cost of Sentimental Diplomacy
Somaliland, for its part, has long operated under the illusion of “Brotherhood policy.” Successive governments have treated Djibouti as a trusted ally despite overwhelming evidence of its hostility. Instead of adopting a realist foreign policy grounded in national interest, Somaliland has relied on goodwill diplomacy, a strategy that has yielded nothing but empty promises and symbolic gestures.
In the unforgiving world of international politics, moral appeals do not secure recognition, power and leverage do. Somaliland must internalize this reality if it hopes to break free from decades of diplomatic stagnation.
What Somaliland Must Do: Shift to Realism-Based Diplomacy
Somaliland cannot afford to remain passive while Djibouti manipulates regional politics to its detriment. It must adopt a realist approach anchored in self-interest and strategic assertiveness.
Redefine Relations with Djibouti
• Maintain diplomatic courtesy but demand clarity. No more endless photo-ops without substance. Any engagement with Djibouti must produce tangible outcomes trade agreements, infrastructure partnerships, or security cooperation.
• Reject any Djibouti-led “dialogue” initiatives that aim to delay recognition under the guise of mediation.
Exploit Economic Leverage
• Accelerate the development of Berbera Port as Ethiopia’s primary trade outlet. Economic reality is the strongest diplomatic tool. A thriving Berbera diminishes Djibouti’s monopoly and forces recalibration.
Build Strategic Alliances Beyond Djibouti
• Deepen ties with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia), as well as Western partners. A network of supportive states reduces Somaliland’s vulnerability to Djibouti’s pressure.
Project Strength, Not Patience
Foreign policy is about perception. If Somaliland cannot assert itself against a tiny one-city country, how can it deal with giants like Ethiopia, Egypt, or Turkey? States observe behavior and adjust accordingly. Passivity invites disrespect.
Prepare for Defiance When Necessary
• If Djibouti continues its obstructionist role, Somaliland should publicly call out the duplicity. Transparency can shift regional and international perceptions.
Djibouti’s strategy toward Somaliland is neither friendship nor neutrality, it is calculated obstruction masked by symbolic engagement. Somaliland must wake up from the illusion of “brotherhood” and embrace the logic of realism: states act in their own interest, not out of sentiment. If Somaliland hopes to achieve recognition and secure its sovereignty, it must play the game of power with the same clarity and ruthlessness that Djibouti has mastered for decades.
Djibouti’s actions have gone beyond passive obstruction. In 2024, Djibouti invited the leader of the Sool-East militia to Djibouti, a group openly engaged in violent conflict against Somaliland. This act constitutes a direct breach of Somaliland’s sovereignty and a blatant attempt to incite militancy within Somaliland’s borders. If left unchecked, such behavior will embolden Djibouti to escalate its aggression under the cover of “regional mediation.”
If Djibouti, a tiny city-state, dares to openly support armed groups against Somaliland’s government and its people, then the principle of reciprocity should guide Somaliland’s response. Under international norms of self-defense and strategic deterrence, Somaliland has every right to welcome Djibouti’s own militant opposition such as the Front for Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD) by offering them bases and political recognition. This is not an act of provocation but a legitimate countermeasure to aggression.
For 30 years, Somaliland has gotten nothing from Djibouti except symbolic diplomacy and empty gestures. In fact, this appeasement policy has emboldened Djibouti to become openly hostile toward Somaliland’s aspirations. It is time to take reciprocal measures and put Djibouti in its place.
If Somaliland cannot stand firm against a microstate like Djibouti, how can it navigate the complex geopolitics of the Horn of Africa? States read your behavior and act upon it. The gloves must come off. Somaliland has the leverage, the legitimacy, and the strategic position to assert itself. What it needs now is clarity of purpose and boldness of action
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