FILE PHOTO: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a signing ceremony with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia December 7, 2019. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri


Abiy has overseen sweeping democratic reforms since taking power in Africaโ€™s second most populous nation two years ago. But the federal government – and major opposition parties – agreed to postpone national and regional elections due in August until the COVID-19 pandemic was under control.

 

Tigray, whose leaders dominated the previous administration and have often bitterly denounced Abiy, announced it would hold elections anyway.

โ€œWe know there is an open threat by Abiy to militarily intervene against Tigray and to cut funds, but we will still go ahead with the vote,โ€ said Getachew Reda, a former federal information minister and now a spokesman for the Tigray Peopleโ€™s Liberation Front. โ€œWe know there will be consequences.

Abiy has given little away about his plans. A spokeswoman for his office said in a text message that the vote would provoke โ€œa constitutional responseโ€ and referred Reuters to parliament.

The spokesman for parliament, Ato Gebru Gebresilasie, did not return calls seeking comment, but a report by the International Crisis Group think tank warned last month that the two sides were on a โ€œcollision courseโ€ and said: โ€œIf Tigray proceeds, Abiyโ€™s government is ready to consider any new regional administration illegitimate.โ€

Tigrayans are only a small minority in the Horn of Africa nation of 110 million, but dominated power since 1991, when the Ethiopian Peopleโ€™s Revolutionary Democratic Front drove a Marxist military dictator from power. The Front was a coalition of four ethnically-based parties, including the Tigray Peopleโ€™s Liberation Front.

Last year, three of the four parties in the coalition joined to create the new Prosperity Party under Abiy. The Tigrayans refused. Some said they felt persecuted – many former officials who have appeared on trial since Abiy took power are Tigrayan.

But in a dynamic playing out all over Ethiopia, the long-ruling regional party is itself facing pressure from more zealous ethnic nationalists. A new party is openly pushing Tigrayan secession from Ethiopia, a polyglot nation of more than 80 ethnic groups.

For now, thatโ€™s a fringe idea, said Dr Asnake Kefale, associate professor of political science at Addis Ababa University.

โ€œAmong the people there isnโ€™t a will to become independent,โ€ he said. โ€œItโ€™s an idea that is played with by the elites.โ€