This is a situation that looks set to deteriorate, with few signs of an end to the global price spike. By some estimates, the world has just 10 weeks of wheat stocks left, while India – the second largest producer – has suspended exports, fearing extreme temperatures could destroy up to 15% of this crop. year.

Meanwhile, the Horn of Africa rainy season, which runs from April to June, has brought little rain, raising the very real prospect of a failed fourth consecutive season. Without urgent intervention, the WFP estimates that 5 million more people will “walk towards starvation” by the end of the year, bringing the total number of people facing food insecurity to 20 million.

“It’s a very bad situation,” said Lizzie Walker, head of the UK government office in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa. “It’s definitely worse than [the famine in] 2011 so far.

But although a rapid response during the 2016/17 drought in Somalia averted a famine on the scale of 2011 – when 260,000 people died – aid seems unlikely to match the crisis. current.

“The outlook has deteriorated significantly over the past two to three months. [due to the] Ukraine crisis,” said Dr Nisar Majid, a research associate at the London School of Economics focused on Somalia. “It’s both in terms of the cost of food imports, but also the availability of funds… [Ukraine] absorbs aid budgets.