By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin
The Horn of Africa’s geopolitical landscape is complex, with various narratives shaping perceptions of stability and sovereignty. In the intricate geopolitical theater of the Horn of Africa, a recent article “Stability in the Horn of Africa is Vital to Global Trade” by the Egyptian Ambassador to the United States, Mr. Motas Zahran (December 10, 2024) in Time magazine, seeks to undermine Somaliland’s legitimate aspirations for international recognition. This narrative not only distorts the reality on the ground but also serves as a smokescreen for Egypt’s strategic maneuvers in the region.
Egypt’s Involvement
While Egypt positions itself as a stabilizing force, its actions, such as deploying troops to Somalia under the African Union mission, can be perceived as attempts to exert influence rather than genuine stabilization efforts. Egypt’s opposition to Somaliland’s recognition aligns with its strategic interests, particularly concerning Nile River geopolitics, rather than the promotion of regional stability.
Contrary to the diplomat’s argument that Egypt has a good record of peacekeeping missions in Africa, Egypt’s involvement in regional conflicts, particularly in Libya, has been marked by support for specific factions rather than successful peacekeeping. For instance, Egypt has backed General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in Libya, contributing to prolonged instability.
In the context of Somalia, Egypt’s interest appears to be strategically motivated, aiming to counter Ethiopia’s influence in the region. By supporting Somalia, Egypt seeks to exert pressure on Ethiopia regarding Nile water resource negotiations, reflecting a continuation of its longstanding colonial policy to dominate Nile resources rather than engaging in equitable sharing with all Nile geography sharing states.
Arms Proliferation and External Influences
The influx of arms into Somalia, often facilitated by external actors, exacerbates instability and empowers extremist groups. Reports indicate that both Egypt and China have been involved in supplying arms to destabilize eastern regions of Somaliland, undermining the region’s security and stability. The clandestine nature of these arms shipments further complicates the security landscape, with fears that they may empower extremist factions rather than bolster national defense.
Egypt’s recent military aid to Somalia has raised alarms about the potential exacerbation of regional conflicts. Somaliland and Ethiopia, in particular, have expressed concerns that these weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist groups, thereby intensifying instability.
The One Somalia Policy and U.S. Engagement.
The Ambassador seems unaware that the notion of One Somalia policy is increasingly untenable, given that Somaliland has functioned independently for over three decades. Other regions within Somalia’s federal structure, such as Jubaland and Puntland, exhibit significant autonomy and tendencies toward secession, further challenging the feasibility of a unified Somalia.
Houthis’ Disruptions and Al-Shabab’s Threats
The diplomat suggests that Somaliland’s pursuit of recognition exacerbates regional instability by enabling groups like Al-Shabab. Contrarily, Somaliland has maintained a stable and secure environment since declaring independence in 1991, effectively countering extremist influences within its borders. Its commitment to peace and security in the Horn of Africa is evident through its internal stability and efforts to combat terrorism.
Ethiopia’s Role and Somaliland
The article criticizes Ethiopia’s agreements with Somaliland, implying they undermine Somalia’s territorial integrity. However, Somaliland’s borders are well-defined, established during the colonial era, and reaffirmed through a 2001 constitutional referendum where 97% voted in favor of independence. Engagements between Ethiopia and Somaliland are based on mutual interests and respect for sovereignty, aiming to enhance regional cooperation and development.
Somalia’s Sovereignty and Regional Diplomacy
The Ambassador advocates for U.S. mediation to maintain Somalia’s unity, disregarding Somaliland’s distinct historical and legal status. Somaliland was a British protectorate and gained independence in 1960 before voluntarily entering a union with Somalia—a union that failed, leading to Somaliland’s withdrawal and restoration of its independence in 1991. Its democratic governance and repeated calls for recognition reflect a legitimate aspiration for self-determination, distinct from Somalia’s internal dynamics.
The U.S. is no longer interested in its “One Somalia” policy which has not yielded the desired outcomes, as evidenced by persistent instability and lack of effective governance in Somalia. Recognizing this reality, U.S. policymakers are reconsidering their stance. Notably, Congressman Scott Perry introduced H.R. 10402, a bill advocating for the recognition of Somaliland as an independent country. The world recently witnessed the presidential and parliamentary elections in Somaliland which resulted in peaceful transfer of power, underscoring its status as a stable and democratic entity in a tumultuous region, thus deserving recognition.
U.S.-Egypt Strategic Partnership
The Egyptian diplomat emphasizes a U.S.-Egypt partnership in promoting regional stability. However, this partnership often overlooks the democratic progress and stability that Somaliland represents. Recognizing Somaliland could serve U.S. interests in promoting democracy and countering extremism in the region. Furthermore, China’s growing influence, including investments in regional infrastructure, poses challenges to U.S. strategic interests—challenges that a recognized and allied Somaliland could help mitigate.
Addressing the ‘Pandora’s Box’ Argument
A common outdated argument raised by the Ambassador against Somaliland’s recognition is the fear that it would set a precedent for other separatist movements in Africa, potentially destabilizing the continent. However, this concern is unfounded in Somaliland’s case. The African Union (AU) Charter emphasizes the inviolability of colonial borders to prevent arbitrary secessions.
Somaliland’s situation is unique because it seeks a return to its internationally recognized borders at the time of independence in 1960, prior to its voluntary union with Somalia. This historical context distinguishes Somaliland’s case from other separatist movements.
Moreover, the AU’s own fact-finding mission in 2005 concluded that Somaliland’s pursuit of recognition is historically unique and self-justified in African political history. The mission recommended that Somaliland’s case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a Pandora’s box’ and urged the AU to find a special method of dealing with this yet outstanding case.
The Kosovo Parallel: U.S. Strategic Interests
The comparison between Somaliland and Kosovo is gaining traction among U.S. policymakers. Recognizing Somaliland could serve U.S. strategic interests by ensuring stability along the Red Sea, a vital artery for global trade. Such a move would counterbalance the influence of regional actors like Egypt, Turkey, and China, who have vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
Furthermore, there are indications that the U.S. is considering to recognizing Somaliland soon, especially given the strategic military cooperation already in place. The port of Berbera offers significant strategic value for safeguarding maritime security and trade routes, countering Chinese influence, and addressing threats from Houthi and Iranian activities in the Red Sea.
The narrative presented by the Egyptian diplomat reflect a biased perspective that overlooks the complexities on the ground and Somaliland’s legitimate aspirations for recognition. Somaliland’s stability, democratic governance, and strategic significance make it a valuable partner for the international community.
As the Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads, the international community must critically assess the motivations behind such Egyptian propaganda narratives. Recognizing Somaliland not only acknowledges the democratic will of its people but also contributes to regional stability, aligning with broader strategic interests in the Red Sea corridor. It is long overdue for America to act and recognize Somaliland as the new Kosovo in the Horn of Africa.
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