He who controls water controls life. But he who politicizes the flow may one day drown in the current of his own ambition.” – Ancient Nile Proverb (Reimagined)
By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
In the unforgiving geometry of global politics, few variables carry as much symbolic, strategic, and existential weight as water. And no river embodies that burden more than the Nile, a 6,650-kilometer lifeline stretching across eleven African nations, yet historically treated as the sovereign reserve of one:
As East Africa redefines its voice, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, widely known as GERD, has emerged not just as an engineering feat but as a monument to Ethiopia’s unyielding aspiration. GERD is not simply a dam; it is Ethiopia’s declaration of energy sovereignty and regional pride. Its foundation is cemented not only in concrete but also in a century’s worth of frustration over exclusion from colonial-era water-sharing agreements.
For Egypt, however, the image is starkly different. GERD represents uncertainty. To Cairo, the dam embodies a looming threat to an already fragile dependency on the Nile, upon which more than 97 percent of Egypt’s population relies for freshwater. In Egyptian eyes, GERD is a geopolitical earthquake on their northern doorstep.
With President Donald J. Trump now serving a second term in office, the global tone toward this dispute has shifted once again. His recent comment, “If I were Egypt, I’d want the Nile waters,” stripped of diplomatic tact and filled with implicit alignment, rekindled memories of his earlier tenure, which was markedly unsympathetic to Ethiopia’s position. Trump’s previous endorsement of Egypt’s right to consider military strikes against the dam signaled a provocative disregard for multilateral engagement.
Trump’s first term offered little support to Ethiopia in its quest for development through the Nile. Instead, Washington’s role was often viewed as unbalanced, favoring Egypt’s claims rooted in outdated treaties. His second term, despite the world’s evolved understanding of African agency, seems to echo that same unsettling rhythm. His recent remarks are not only diplomatically clumsy but strategically dangerous, emboldening extremist voices while undermining decades of regional negotiation.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, located near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, is Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility. With a reservoir capable of holding 74 billion cubic meters of water and an expected output of over 6,000 megawatts, GERD is a critical infrastructure project meant to power regional development. Yet its political charge far outweighs its engineering blueprint.
Ethiopia insists that the dam is a non-consumptive, run-of-the-river project, passing water downstream after generating power. There is no intention to deprive Egypt or Sudan of their rightful share. What Addis Ababa demands is equitable access, not dominance but fairness. Ethiopia contributes more than 85 percent of the Nile’s flow, yet until recently had little say in how it was managed.
This fundamental imbalance underlines a deeper truth. The Nile is not a colonial inheritance but a shared African asset. As one African hydrologist observed, “Africa cannot rise by denying one nation’s sunrise for the sake of another’s sunset.” GERD, in that light, should be seen not as a threat but as a triumph, a symbol of what Africa can achieve when unshackled from historical asymmetries.
Trump’s tendency to weaponize rhetoric rather than wield it diplomatically puts the entire basin at risk. Statements that imply support for military action against a peaceful development project are not only irresponsible, they are incendiary. When great rivers become bargaining chips, diplomacy becomes a game of levees and leverage.
Historically, Egypt’s control over the Nile was enshrined in the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and reaffirmed in 1959, which granted Egypt and Sudan exclusive rights to the river’s flow. Ethiopia, the source of the Blue Nile, was not party to these agreements. Such colonial arithmetic has long been contested by Addis Ababa and other upstream countries who see no legitimacy in deals made without their consent.
Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi captured this sentiment best: “No one can stop Ethiopia from using the Nile. It is ours as much as theirs.”
The GERD now represents a broader African renaissance, an attempt to recalibrate history through infrastructure, sovereignty, and science. But it also reflects the precarious politics of perception. Egypt views Ethiopia’s technical reassurances with suspicion. Trump’s vocal alignment with Cairo only amplifies that distrust.
Consider the Nile not merely as a river, but as a geopolitical equation:
N = f(R, P, T)
Here, N represents the stability of the Nile Basin. R stands for regional trust, P for the distribution of power, and T for the timing of dam operations. Under Trump’s lens, the variables shift dangerously. By rhetorically empowering Egypt, he distorts the equilibrium, reducing regional trust and threatening the delicate timing agreements Ethiopia has promised to uphold.
Despite these tensions, the African Union continues to advocate for dialogue. Ethiopia has filled parts of the reservoir while inviting negotiations over the long-term timetable. But if political actors like Trump continue to fuel division, the space for compromise will narrow.
The stakes extend far beyond water. As one geopolitical strategist warned, if water is the new oil, then the Nile is the Middle East of Africa. Mishandling this dispute could trigger a chain reaction that destabilizes not only the Horn but North Africa as well.
President Trump may believe that the Nile issue is a matter of simple negotiation. But the Nile is not a contract. It is a civilizational current, a river of history, blood, and belief. Reducing it to a transactional dispute is both shortsighted and dangerous.
Ethiopia’s vision is not conquest but cooperation. It is not the weaponization of water but the democratization of development. GERD should stand as a beacon of continental pride, not a flashpoint for continental discord.
Let it be remembered that true statesmanship builds consensus, not conflict. The Nile will continue to flow. But history will record who tried to redirect its course with force rather than fairness. And even the Pharaohs, if they were alive today, might agree.
Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne is a Columnist, Political and Security Analyst, and Researcher, Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region of Ethiopia. He can be reached at +251900644648
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