By Jama Ayaanle Feyte,Journalist, Horn of Africa Security Expert and Political Analyst
The recent security warning issued by the United States regarding Somalia is not without context. According to regional observers, its underlying causes are closely tied to the domestic political maneuvers of former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose tenure since May 15, 2022, has been characterized by a persistent drive to consolidate power—often at the expense of federal cohesion and national reconciliation.
Critics contend that Mohamud’s administration has prioritized political survival over governance. To maintain his grip on the presidency, he reportedly pursued a deliberate strategy of weakening Somalia’s more influential federal member states, particularly Jubaland and Puntland, while simultaneously working to counter the self-declared republic of Somaliland. His approach, analysts say, has involved exploiting regional fault lines, entering into opaque international agreements, and fostering internal divisions.
Meanwhile, in Somaliland, the government appears deeply absorbed in internal political rivalries, raising urgent questions about its capacity to counter external threats, vet foreign nationals, and seal the financial loopholes that fuel insurgency. These domestic distractions have left Somaliland increasingly vulnerable, with porous borders and unregulated financial flows potentially enabling militant networks to operate with impunity—a gap that Mogadishu and external actors may be positioning to exploit. As regional tensions mount, Hargeisa’s inward focus risks rendering it a passive bystander in a game where its territorial claims and stability are directly at stake.
Key Flashpoints Under Mohamud’s Watch
1. The Las Anod Conflict
When hostilities erupted in Las Anod, Mohamud’s administration reportedly viewed the situation as a strategic opportunity. A prolonged conflict was seen as a means to deplete the military and financial resources of both Puntland and Somaliland. Following the eventual victory by Sool forces, the President initially offered conditional recognition of a new regional administration—only to later revise the terms, demanding that Sool forces also secure the neighboring Sanaag region. This shifting stance has been widely interpreted as an attempt to create a protracted standoff between Sool and Puntland forces.
1. Somaliland and the Turkish Agreement
In the Awdal region, Mohamud engaged local stakeholders while simultaneously finalizing a controversial agreement with Turkey. The deal reportedly granted Ankara access to the ports of Zeila and Berbera—both located within Somaliland’s claimed territory—for potential military installations. This move not only intensified tensions with Somaliland but also prompted a strategic realignment, pushing Somaliland toward closer ties with Israel.
1. Jubaland and the Ras Kamboni Crisis
The President’s involvement in the Ras Kamboni conflict further strained relations with Jubaland, adding another front to the growing list of regional disputes.
1. Pressure on Puntland
The most sustained campaign, however, has been directed at Puntland. Significant financial and logistical resources were reportedly mobilized to weaken its administration. This included backing local proxies, fostering discontent among Puntland elites in Mogadishu, and even reactivating pirate networks along the coast. Ahead of Puntland’s 2024 regional elections, substantial funds were allegedly channeled to secure a president sympathetic to Mogadishu.
Despite these wide-ranging efforts, analysts assess that Mohamud’s broader strategy—aimed at subjugating Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland—has largely failed to achieve its objectives.
Saudi Arabia has initiated a major military training program for Somali forces in the Galguduud region, reportedly involving over 5,000 recruits from across the country, including Puntland. This comes amid a growing strategic rift with the UAE, which maintains significant influence in Somaliland, Puntland, and Jubaland through port investments and military cooperation—raising concerns about Somalia becoming a theater for Gulf proxy rivalries.”
The New Provocations Behind the U.S. Alert
The latest U.S. intelligence warning is now being linked to a fresh wave of destabilizing initiatives attributed to Mohamud’s inner circle. Sources indicate that officials based in Las Anod—including Minister Jamaal and a figure known as Timacade—have been tasked with executing a multi-pronged plan that risks igniting widespread conflict:ff
Mr. Abdikhadir Ahmed Aw-Ali nicknamed Firdhiye, is a Somali politician who serves as the President of Las Anod militias recently visited Egypt is meant to undermine Somaliland sovereignty.
President Sisi has reaffirmed Egypt’s “firm support for Somalia’s unity, security and territorial integrity,” explicitly rejecting any recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
· Mobilization in Sanaag: Plans to recruit local youth from the Sanaag region and present them as a federal force, a move likely to fuel local opposition and deepen regional divisions.
· Troop Redeployment: Proposals to withdraw Sool regional forces from defensive positions and reposition them near Tukoraq, increasing military pressure on Garowe, Puntland’s administrative capital.
· Propaganda Campaigns: Coordinated disinformation efforts, including recent unfounded claims by Timacade that Puntland is destabilizing the Sool region—assertions widely dismissed by local sources.
· Reviving Piracy: Reports of plans to reactivate pirate cells along the Las Qorey coastline, threatening maritime security and regional stability.
A Broader Geopolitical Calculus
Observers suggest that these moves are not merely tactical but serve a larger strategic objective: to provoke clan-based confrontations, fragment regional alliances, and create a vacuum that external actors—and Mogadishu—might exploit. The ultimate aim appears to be triggering a multi-front pressure scenario, where Sool forces, Puntland troops, and Somaliland’s military are drawn into overlapping hostilities. This plan is reportedly being coordinated with the involvement of Deputy Prime Minister Salah, raising concerns about the extent of state-backed escalation.
As the U.S. warning underscores, the region now faces a precarious moment—one shaped less by external threats than by internal political calculations that continue to prioritize power over peace.
About the Author: Jama Ayaanle Feyte is a journalist, Horn of Africa security specialist, and political analyst focused on governance, conflict resolution, and regional integration.
