By Jama Ayaanle Feyte, Journalist, Horn of Africa Security Expert and Political Analyst
The controversy surrounding Somalia’s new Speaker of Parliament, Abdikadir Mohamed Nur—popularly known as Jama —shows no signs of subsiding, despite the Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs issuing a statement clarifying that Somalia recognizes only one Cyprus.
The row, initially sparked by the Speaker’s implicit endorsement of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as a sovereign state, is now taking on an intriguing new dimension, bleeding into the wider geopolitical ferment unfolding across the Mediterranean and Red Sea arenas.
A Coordinated Turkish Campaign
A coordinated Turkish campaign has emerged to defend the Somali Speaker, with some commentators praising him for taking a “bold and principled stance.” More significantly, pro-Ankara voices are now suggesting that Somalia owes it to Turkey to reverse its traditional policy on Cyprus and extend formal recognition to the TRNC.
What initially appeared to be an inadvertent mistake now looks increasingly like a calculated move. Jama’s post may have been intended to trigger precisely the debate now unfolding—a foreign policy reckoning over Somalia’s longstanding position on the Cyprus issue.
Timing and Internal Friction
The timing is significant and likely not coincidental. The issue has surfaced as Somalia and Turkey mark 15 years of their “strategic partnership.” More importantly, it has generated significant friction inside the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS).
Turkish social media posts are now directing criticism at Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Balcad, and Prime Minister Hamza Barre—both alleged to have pressured Jama to delete his post acknowledging the TRNC. The two officials are also believed to have come under pressure from Cypriot and European diplomats.
It took Somalia four days to formally respond and clarify its position on Cyprus—a delay likely indicative of internal friction between the pro-Turkey camp, which favors closer relations with the TRNC, and those who prefer Somalia to maintain its traditional stance and stay aligned with the international consensus.
Wider Geopolitical Drivers
Broader geopolitical factors are driving Turkey’s calculations and its campaign to seek greater international recognition for the TRNC. Pro-Turkey groups argue that a strong Mogadishu-TRNC relationship would reinforce Ankara’s strategic partnership with Somalia while simultaneously undercutting Israel’s growing ties with Somaliland. They also contend that such a move would preempt any attempt by Cyprus and Greece to extend formal recognition to Somaliland.
Israel is a close ally of both Greece and Cyprus, and the three states recently unveiled a new strategic alliance. For Israel, Cyprus and Greece form a critical part of its Mediterranean periphery, making the TRNC—a territorial fragmentation of a key ally—a major strategic challenge.
Converging Theatres
The escalating rivalry between Israel and Turkey across the wider Mediterranean and Levant theatre is now rapidly converging with competition over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This convergence is reshaping alliances and forcing regional actors—including Somalia—to navigate increasingly complex geopolitical currents.
Somaliland’s Strategic Calculus
At the heart of this geopolitical contest lies Somaliland, whose strategic value has drawn increasing international attention. Since unilaterally declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has maintained its own government, institutions, and security forces, yet has not received formal international recognition as a sovereign state.
Geostrategic Position
Somaliland’s primary asset is its location along the Gulf of Aden, close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—one of the world’s busiest commercial shipping routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This positioning offers direct access to critical maritime corridors and proximity to Houthi-influenced areas in Yemen, which Israel views as a direct security threat.
The development of Berbera port, already backed by Gulf capital, positions the territory as a logistics hub capable of bypassing more unstable corridors. The UAE already operates a military base in Berbera under an agreement dating back to 2017. With Berbera’s airbase and port facilities being expanded, the location could serve as a forward intelligence post for monitoring regional threats.
Growing International Engagement
Somaliland has gradually been integrating into international security conversations. In March 2026, Somaliland made its first appearance at the inaugural Athens Defence Summit, with its Minister of Defence invited to participate—a development suggesting a degree of practical acknowledgement of Somaliland as a security actor, even in the absence of formal diplomatic recognition.
Somaliland’s relative stability in a volatile region has made it an increasingly attractive partner for external actors. Strategy International Think Tank has noted that Somaliland “represents a case that deserves greater international attention, not only from a geopolitical and security perspective, but also in terms of governance, strategic positioning, trade connectivity, and future regional cooperation.”
Economic Potential
Beyond geopolitics, Somaliland offers significant economic opportunities. Its leadership has signaled readiness to offer access to minerals, energy potential, fisheries, and agricultural exports, while looking to partners for investment, know-how, and market access. For external actors, Somaliland offers a rare combination of strategic location and political stability in a region marked by fragility.
Recognition as a Strategic Asset
For Somaliland, recognition by Israel in December 2025 marked a turning point in its decades-long quest for international legitimacy. While most of the international community—including the Arab League, African nations, and Pakistan—has condemned the move as a violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity, the recognition has opened the door to economic and strategic cooperation centered on logistics, technology, and security.
Benefits for Somalia and the Region
Some analysts argue that engaging Somaliland on practical, non-political terms could yield mutual benefits rather than being framed as a zero-sum game. For Somalia, a stable and economically integrated Somaliland could contribute to broader regional security and trade. For external partners, Somaliland offers a platform for counterterrorism cooperation, maritime security, and humanitarian access.
The core question remains: can economic pragmatism and strategic value gradually buy recognition in a world where geopolitical calculations often drive political decisions?
Converging Interests
The Cyprus-Somalia-Turkey controversy is ultimately a reflection of deeper strategic realignments. Somaliland sits at the intersection of multiple rivalries: Israel vs. Turkey, Mediterranean powers vs. Ankara, and competing Red Sea security arrangements.
For Turkey, drawing Somalia closer on the Cyprus issue would strengthen its regional position and push back against Israeli-Greek-Cypriot cooperation. For Somalia, the controversy exposes the tension between its long-standing international obligations and its deepening partnership with Turkey.
For Somaliland, this geopolitical ferment represents an opportunity. Whether through Israeli recognition, participation in international forums, or economic partnerships centered on Berbera, Somaliland is betting that its strategic value will gradually translate into the international legitimacy it has sought for more than three decades.
About the Author: Jama Ayaanle Feyte is a distinguished journalist, a specialist in Horn of Africa security dynamics, and a political analyst whose work focuses on governance, conflict resolution, and regional integration.
