“Africa is expected to play a significant role in Somaliland’s pursuit for recognition,”

Sharmake Ali is a seasoned political analyst specializing in East African affairs, with a particular focus on Somaliland. For over a decade, Sharmake has been a tireless activist in the United Kingdom, passionately advocating for Somaliland’s international recognition.

With a Bachelor’s degree in International Relations and a Master’s in Public Policy from prestigious British Universities, Sharmake combines academic expertise with practical, on the ground knowledge to provide insightful analysis on the region’s geopolitics. Through his contributions to mainstream media, he has worked to educate global audiences on Somaliland’s compelling legal, political, and moral case for recognition.

The Reporter’s Sisay Sahlu spoke to Sharmake Ali for a deeper look at Ethiopia’s rekindled diplomatic relations with Somalia and the outlook for Somaliland’s aspiration for recognition.

How does the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement align with or contradict Ethiopia’s relationship with Somalia?  Can we characterize the recent agreement between the two as a diplomatic win for Somalia?

Ethiopia has maintained a consistent position, affirming that its MoU with Somaliland does not infringe on Somalia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity, as Somaliland presents a politically unique and compelling case for recognition based on the borders inherited when it gained independence from the British on June 26, 1960. Therefore, while the agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia is a positive step and may reduce regional tensions by satisfying Somalia’s lust for symbolic gestures, it ultimately demonstrates a diplomatic coup for Ethiopia over Somalia.

How should Somaliland navigate its relationship with Ethiopia in light of its agreements with Somalia?

Somaliland should continue to maintain the position held by successive administrations, based on the principle of fostering good neighbourly diplomatic relations to ensure regional stability and promote shared prosperity. However, like any sovereign state, Somaliland will remain committed to prioritizing its own interests, seeking partners ready to support its aspirations and contribute to its development.

How do you view the recent agreements between Ethiopia and Somalia, and Ethiopia and Somaliland, in terms of regional stability?

Somaliland and Ethiopia have coexisted for thousands of years, a history that unsurprisingly, has not always been peaceful. However, over the past 34 years, the two nations have forged strong ties, demonstrating a level of diplomatic maturity that recognizes regional security, stability, and prosperity are deeply reliant on these close relations.

How might this agreement affect Somaliland’s aspirations for recognition?

While Somaliland values its historic ties with Ethiopia and would welcome it as the first country to extend recognition, it remains clear that Somaliland’s options for achieving international recognition extend beyond Ethiopia alone, as Somaliland’s unique case for recognition is legally sound, morally just, and politically advantageous.

What challenges might arise from Ethiopia’s dual engagements with Somaliland and Somalia?

Ethiopia maintaining its dual-track policy presents a strategic opportunity to foster regional stability and cooperation, particularly at a time when global powers are preparing to recalibrate their positions. For instance, there is growing anticipation that a Trump administration may abandon the ineffective ‘One Somalia’ policy, stressing the importance for Ethiopia to maintain its approach.

Are there opportunities for trilateral cooperation, or will these agreements deepen divisions?

There will come a time for the possibility of trilateral cooperation when Somaliland is recognized and Somalia desists from its false claims and irredentist ambitions, however, until that time comes, Somaliland will maintain its resolve, leaving little room for any meaningful trilateral cooperation.

Rumors say the new President of Somaliland is not interested in the MoU with Ethiopia. Is the MoU between Somaliland and Ethiopia still intact? If not, why? If it is active, what is going on?

These rumours are incorrect as the President of Somaliland has repeatedly emphasised that a decision will only be made once his administration has had an opportunity to examine the MoU. All the signals from the President and his team demonstrate a commitment to working with Ethiopia to achieve win-win solutions for both nations. Additionally, it is worth noting that the new administration has been in office for just one month, with the transition process still ongoing.

How do the new President of Somaliland and his officials see the diplomatic relationship with Ethiopia? Have they established contact with Ethiopian officials for a common agenda? 

What is evident is that the President regards Ethiopia as one of Somaliland’s closest allies and his administration is committed to deepening bilateral relations between the two states. His administration will seek to strengthen these ties with the hope and expectation of achieving formal recognition in the near future. The President and his team have been working closely with Ethiopian officials, both in the lead-up to taking office and in the month since.

What are the Somaliland government’s plans for achieving international recognition?

The new administration is yet to unveil a clear plan for achieving international recognition, as stated by the Foreign Minister in his confirmation speech to Parliament. However, it is reasonable to anticipate a strategy that leverages Somaliland’s strong legal case, strategic geographic position, commitment to democratic values and abundant natural resources to push its case globally. Africa is expected to play a significant role in this administration’s pursuit for recognition, with early signs suggesting a focus on building new partnerships and strengthening existing relationships across the continent. Given the President’s background as a career diplomat, I anticipate a strong and well coordinated diplomatic core acting as the engine for this effort.