The meeting between Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi and Major General Claude K. Tudor Jr., commander of US Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), to discuss security cooperation and strategic interests in the Horn of Africa suggests that United States (US) recognition of Somaliland may be increasingly likely. As the crisis in Iran and the resulting uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global trade and security, US partnership with Somaliland is no longer merely a diplomatic possibility but rather a geopolitical necessity.
As the crisis in Iran and the resulting uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global trade and security, US partnership with Somaliland is no longer merely a diplomatic possibility but rather a geopolitical necessity.
Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto independent state without receiving international recognition. Despite maintaining democratic institutions, ensuring internal stability, and exercising effective control over its territory, no country has formally recognised Somaliland. This began to change when Israel became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland in December 2025. Although Somaliland previously established diplomatic relations with Taiwan and Ethiopia, neither has reached the level of formal recognition. Yet, shifting geopolitical realities in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa are creating conditions that could fundamentally increase its importance and lead Washington to recognise Somaliland as well.
Somaliland’s Geographic Importance for the US
The crisis in Iran, which began over Iran’s nuclear programme, has gradually transformed into a wider contest over maritime dominance across the Middle East. While Hormuz remains the centre of gravity, the conflict is steadily moving towards the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Bab el-Mandeb is one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime chokepoints, linking the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. As it carries nearly 12 percent of global trade, including several million barrels of oil, any disruption in the strait would increase freight costs, insurance premiums, fuel consumption, and supply chain costs, as seen during the Red Sea shipping crisis of 2024-25.
The principal source of this threat is the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Over the past two years, the Houthis have transformed maritime coercion into an effective instrument of geopolitical influence. Armed with anti-ship ballistic missiles, drones, naval mines and advanced surveillance capabilities supported by Iran, the group has repeatedly targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Now, the prospect of the Houthis eventually regulating maritime traffic or imposing transit fees through Bab el-Mandeb appears increasingly plausible. Washington therefore has a strategic interest in maintaining freedom of navigation through Bab el-Mandeb. Ensuring secure access to the Red Sea, however, would require reliable regional partners capable of supporting sustained military and logistical operations. It is precisely in this context that Somaliland emerges as an increasingly attractive strategic partner.
Somaliland occupies one of the most advantageous geographic positions in the region. Stretching over 850 km along the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland overlooks one of the busiest maritime corridors connecting the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean. Its greatest strategic asset is the Port of Berbera. Over the past decade, Berbera has undergone major modernisation, transforming it into one of the most capable deep-water ports on Africa’s eastern coast. The adjoining airfield, originally constructed during the Cold War, has also been upgraded and can support large military aircraft. Together, these facilities provide an ideal logistics hub for naval deployments, intelligence operations and maritime surveillance.
From an American military perspective, Berbera offers several operational advantages.
From an American military perspective, Berbera offers several operational advantages. Naval vessels engaged in securing Bab el-Mandeb could be resupplied without relying exclusively on facilities in Djibouti. Air assets conducting surveillance over Yemen or anti-Houthi missions could operate from a location considerably closer to the theatre of operations. Moreover, a larger American presence in Berbera would diversify Washington’s military footprint in the Horn of Africa at a time when strategic competition with both China and Russia is intensifying.
Somaliland as a Strategic Counterweight to China
The importance of Berbera becomes even greater when viewed alongside China’s expanding regional influence. Beijing has steadily strengthened its strategic position through its military base in Djibouti, extensive infrastructure investments and deepening political engagement with Somalia.
China may use airspace restrictions as a tool to isolate Somaliland. Recently, Beijing attempted to prevent the Taiwanese president from travelling to Eswatini by restricting Taiwanese aircraft from using routes through neighbouring countries. The episode in Eswatini could serve as a warning of how Beijing may seek to use airspace restrictions to limit Taiwan’s engagement with other countries. Measures including restrictions on aircraft carrying American officials, tighter visa controls and efforts to limit international engagement with Somaliland may be employed as instruments of geopolitical pressure, restricting US access to Somaliland.
For the US, recognising Somaliland could act as a counter to Chinese influence in the region in multiple ways.
For the US, recognising Somaliland could act as a counter to Chinese influence in the region in multiple ways. In 2020, Somaliland established formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan despite intense opposition from Beijing. China reportedly attempted to persuade Somaliland to reverse its decision with substantial financial incentives, yet Hargeisa defied Chinese pressure. Since then, Somaliland has increasingly aligned itself with partners such as Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, while resisting Chinese political pressure. From Washington’s perspective, Somaliland represents one of the few openly pro-Western actors in a region where Chinese influence is yet to become entrenched.
Economic considerations further strengthen the strategic argument. Somaliland possesses considerable untapped reserves of critical minerals and rare-earth elements, resources that are becoming increasingly important as the United States seeks to reduce its dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains. American recognition could create opportunities for Western companies in mining, logistics and infrastructure. As Washington intensifies efforts to diversify global supply chains for strategic minerals, Somaliland could emerge as an important alternative partner.
The Case for US Recognition
Counterterrorism is another compelling factor. Although Somaliland is overwhelmingly Muslim, it has consistently rejected Islamist extremism. Unlike neighbouring Somalia, which continues to struggle against the militant group Al-Shabaab, Somaliland has enjoyed relative stability. For the US, this presents an opportunity similar to previous partnerships with local forces in other parts of the Middle East. Rather than relying solely on fragile central governments, Washington has increasingly worked with capable local actors sharing common security objectives. Somaliland’s security institutions and political stability make it a potentially valuable partner for counterterrorism operations across the Horn of Africa.
If the conflict surrounding Iran continues to expand westward and Bab el-Mandeb becomes the next major arena of geopolitical competition, the US will require dependable partners positioned at the centre of this emerging maritime theatre. Somaliland offers geographical advantages, political stability, military utility, counterterrorism cooperation, critical mineral potential and alignment with American strategic interests in countering both Iran and China. Given current developments in the region, US recognition of Somaliland appears increasingly likely.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
